Beginner’s Luck – Year One vs. Average

Per the Comish’s request;

We don’t have records for 2000, so no hard stats about the first year for Chris, Dave, Jones, Matt, Tim or Trigger. Everyone else is here, including teams that left and came back. Here is the complete list;

RANK MANAGER W L W%
1 Jim Toepel 2.0 2 0 100.00%
2 Jason Kopeck 12 1 92.31%
3 Stephen Sanchez 10 3 76.92%
4 Brian Kronner 10 4 71.43%
5 Kyle Serruys 9 4 69.23%
5 Byrd Bennett 9 4 69.23%
7 Ryan Kreger 1.0 8 5 61.54%
8 Josh Kreger 2.0 8 6 57.14%
9 John Sanchez 7 6 53.85%
9 Eric Pietrykowski 7 6 53.85%
11 Scott Mollan 7 7 50.00%
12 Matt Mollan 6 7 46.15%
12 Jim Toepel 1.0 6 7 46.15%
12 Bryan Pauly 2.0 6 7 46.15%
15 Mark Kaiser 5 8 38.46%
15 Bryan Pauly 1.0 5 8 38.46%
15 Kevin Burns 5 8 38.46%
18 Josh Kreger 1.0 4 9 30.77%
18 Zach Hicks 4 9 30.77%
18 Chris Fryer 4 9 30.77%
21 Ryan Kreger 2.0 4 10 28.57%
22 Corky 0 2 0.00%
22 Freddy Robbins 0 13 0.00%

Now a lot of these are one-off teams who didn’t care enough to update their rosters, so let’s trim it down…

RANK MANAGER W L W%
1 Jim Toepel 2.0 2 0 100.00%
2 Jason Kopeck 12 1 92.31%
3 S. Sanchez 10 3 76.92%
4 Brian Kronner 10 4 71.43%
5 Kyle Serruys 9 4 69.23%
5 Byrd Bennett 9 4 69.23%
7 Ryan Kreger 1.0 8 5 61.54%
8 Josh Kreger 2.0 8 6 57.14%
9 John Sanchez 7 6 53.85%
10 Jim Toepel 1.0 6 7 46.15%
11 Mark Kaiser 5 8 38.46%
12 Josh Kreger 1.0 4 9 30.77%
13 Ryan Kreger 2.0 4 10 28.57%
14 Corky 0 2 0.00%

Finally, here we have Year One vs. Subsequent Seasons, and how the W% varies…

# MANAGER W L W% AFTER W% DIFF
1 Josh 1.0 4 9 30.8% 54-37 59.3% 28.6%
2 J. Sanchez 7 6 53.8% 33-19 63.5% 9.6%
3 Josh 2.0 8 6 57.1% 20-10 66.7% 9.5%
4 Kaiser 5 8 38.5% 121-143 45.8% 7.4%
5 Ryan 2.0 4 10 28.6% 10-20 33.3% 4.8%
6 Toepel 1.0 6 7 46.2% 74-97 43.3% -2.9%
7 Byrd 9 4 69.2% 81-62 56.6% -12.6%
8 Ryan 1.0 8 5 61.5% 49-55 47.1% -14.4%
9 Kronner 10 4 71.4% 145-139 54.9% -16.5%
10 S. Sanchez 10 3 76.9% 52-42 55.3% -21.6%
11 Kyle 9 4 69.2% 37-46 44.6% -24.7%
12 Jason K. 12 1 92.3% 28-37 43.1% -49.2%

So Josh is the obvious outlier here, a consummate slow-starter it would seem. John, Byrd and Mark all moderately improved, but for most of us, it’s been all downhill since Year One.

Record alone doesn’t tell the whole story however…

  • Kronner, 2001 – Won Title in Y1, only added one more over the 23 seasons since.
  • Pete, 2002 – Won Title in first and only year.
  • Byrd, 2003 – Lost in Title Game during Y1 (to Skippers), won it in Y3.
  • Ryan, 2006 – Won 8 games, titles in Y2 and Y4, before totally falling off.
  • Jason, 2015 – 12-1 record in Y1, lost title game (to Dave). All downhill after that.
  • Steve, 2016 – Won title in Y1, added two Silvers and a Bronze later.
  • John, 2017 – Title in Y2, never placed again.
  • Kyle, 2018 – Just like Byrd; Lost in Title Game during Y1 (to Skippers), won it in Y3.
  • Toepel’s Return, 2024 – Off to a REAL PURDY start.

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