Heading into the draft, Yahoo set projected values for every player to use as a tool in auction drafts. For many reasons, these values are, to say the least, wildly inaccurate when combined with our particular league settings – but it’s still guideline for the overall expected performance of a player.
Yahoo’s numbers are based on 15-round drafts, our draft is 21 rounds. And since they’ve never been able to accurately predict IDP scoring, I’ve left the defender out of this exercise.
Let’s first look at how we each did at the top! This is how your most expensive player grades vs. projected price, and adjusted for a larger draft class.
| TEAM | RICHEST PLAYER | PRE DRAFT | ADJUST PROJ. | ACTUAL COST | VALUE |
| Mark | Breece Hall | $59 | $42.13 | $46 | 1.092 |
| Jim | Derrick Henry | $44 | $31.42 | $35 | 1.114 |
| Kyle | Tyreek Hill | $60 | $42.84 | $48 | 1.120 |
| Ryan | J. Taylor | $50 | $35.70 | $41 | 1.148 |
| Trigger | Garrett Wilson | $48 | $34.27 | $40 | 1.167 |
| Josh | A. St. Brown | $57 | $40.70 | $48 | 1.179 |
| Kronner | Bijan Robinson | $58 | $41.41 | $51 | 1.232 |
| Matt | CeeDee Lamb | $60 | $42.84 | $58 | 1.354 |
| Cork | Puka Nacua | $46 | $32.84 | $45 | 1.370 |
| Dave | Jahmyr Gibbs | $42 | $29.99 | $44 | 1.467 |
| Jones | James Cook | $17 | $12.14 | $26 | 2.142 |
| Chris | Josh Allen | $26 | $18.56 | $50 | 2.693 |
Well, it’s no real surprise that each of us overspent on our priciest player, though most of these are still pretty close to fair value. You know, aside from the Commish. Also, you’ll notice 6/12 here are RBs, proof of a shallow pool of talent at that position.
This is each team’s Best Value pick…
| TEAM | BEST VALUE | PRE DRAFT PROJ. | ADJUSTED PRE DRAFT | DRAFT COST | VALUE |
| Kronner | K. Murray | $13 | $9.28 | $6 | 0.646 |
| Cork | A. Cooper | $17 | $12.14 | $8 | 0.659 |
| Jones | Nico Collins | $27 | $19.28 | $13 | 0.674 |
| Mark | Harrison Jr. | $42 | $29.99 | $27 | 0.900 |
| Trigger | AJ Bumass | $52 | $37.13 | $34 | 0.916 |
| Kyle | McCaffrey | $64 | $45.70 | $46 | 1.007 |
| Jim | D. Henry | $44 | $31.42 | $34 | 1.082 |
| Josh | J. Jefferson | $58 | $41.41 | $45 | 1.087 |
| Ryan | J. Taylor | $50 | $35.70 | $41 | 1.148 |
| Dave | Deebo | $28 | $19.99 | $24 | 1.200 |
| Chris | S. Barkley | $43 | $30.70 | $37 | 1.205 |
| Matt | Ceedee Lamb | $60 | $42.84 | $58 | 1.354 |
Nico Collins at $13 is still one of the strongest picks of this whole draft, at least how it looks as of Week Zero. The fact that Matt’s best value pick was also his most expensive player is impressive on the surface, but it also means that at no point later in the draft did he get an offensive player for less than Yahoo projected.
Here are some of the other highest value picks, all coming in below 1.000.
| Ryan | C. Olave | $33 | $23.56 | $18 | 0.764 |
| Kronner | M. Evans | $35 | $24.99 | $20 | 0.800 |
| Kaiser | B. Hall | $36 | $25.70 | $21 | 0.817 |
| Kyle | J. Chase | $37 | $26.42 | $22 | 0.833 |
| Jones | D. London | $38 | $27.13 | $23 | 0.848 |
| Cork | D. Smith | $19 | $13.57 | $12 | 0.885 |
| Josh | B. Aiyuk | $32 | $22.85 | $22 | 0.963 |
| Cork | D. Adams | $37 | $26.42 | $26 | 0.984 |
And for the flipside of things, here are the “worst” picks, in relation to Yahoo valuations, all coming in over a 2.000. You’re gonna notice a couple trends here….
| TEAM | WORST VALUE | PRE DRAFT PROJ. | ADJUSTED PRE DRAFT | DRAFT COST | VALUE |
| Ryan | Jared Goff | $2 | $1.43 | $30 | 21.008 |
| Matt | Xavier Worthy | $2 | $1.43 | $18 | 12.605 |
| Jim | Jamo Williams | $2 | $1.43 | $16 | 11.204 |
| Kaiser | Joe Burrow | $5 | $3.57 | $39 | 10.924 |
| Jim | Jordan Love | $5 | $3.57 | $30 | 8.403 |
| Kronner | D. Montgomery | $8 | $5.71 | $22 | 3.852 |
| Matt | P. Mahomes | $17 | $12.14 | $41 | 3.378 |
| Josh | Lamar Jackson | $18 | $12.85 | $38 | 2.957 |
| Chris | Josh Allen | $26 | $18.56 | $50 | 2.693 |
| Cork | Terry McLaurin | $9 | $6.43 | $16 | 2.490 |
So the most obvious thing here is pretty classical for this league – it’s how we value the QB spot, vs how it’s looked at by the Fantasy community as a whole. Six of the Ten ‘overpays’ are QBs, and it’s some of the best QBs in the league. This is basically the opposite of RBs, displaying a much deeper pool to draw from has lowered the perceived value of these guys.
The other trend you might have picked up on here is a local bias – Goff, Jamo and Monty all made the list, and Sam Laporta (1.784) just missing the chart. The 2 reamining players represented here are a productive WR playing with a new QB, and what is expected to be an improved offense – and the other is a rookie WR playing with the best QB in the league.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all pans out at the end of the season, see who was more accurate about this stuff, Yahoo or us.
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