As Week 14 kicked off last night, we are officially in the death throes of the regular season. I am (as Jon has already pointed out) probably already late on getting this out – but let’s look at the matchups this week affecting the playoff picture.
- Josh has already locked up the top spot, and a Week 15 BYE.
- Dave has locked up a playoff spot, and currently owns that second BYE.
- Chris – Win and You’re In.
- Kyle – Win and You’re In.
- Kronner – Win and You’re In.
- Trigger – Win and You’re In.
- Jones – Win and You’re In.
- Timbo – Win and Get Some Help.
- Steve – Toilet Bowl
- Matt – Toilet Bowl
- Mark – Toilet Bowl
- Ryan – Toilet Bowl
DAVERS – Currently projected to lose the W14 matchup with his brother by more than 350 points, Dave isn’t in risk of losing his playoff spot- but could he lose his BYE if he dosen’t turn it around? Almost certainly not. The best chance for Dave to drop out of second is that he both loses to Matt, AND Chris beats Jon by more than 875 or so points. Current projections for Chris make that scenario seem highly unlikely. Get ready for a week off Dave.
C TAN – Chris is the first of 5 “win and you’re in” teams, and has the 2nd best point total of said teams. HOWEVER, early projections seem to heavily favor a Skippers victory this week. Should that happen, can Chris still get in? Yes, he can. For that to happen he would need to see at least one of these teams lose; Kyle, Kronner, Trigger.
KYLE – When’s he’s not busy shaking his fist at TD celebrations and ordering MICHIGAN VS EVERYBODY merch, Kyle is working on getting back into playoffs for the first time since he won the title back in 2020. With a win this week over his best friend Mark Kaiser, he will achieve that goal. But should Kaiser drop a spite-filled, Texas sized ass whooping on Kyle, can the Tim Bradys still get in? Sure. Most realistic way for Kyle to lose and still advance, he needs 2 of these 4 teams to also lose; Kronner, Trigger, Jones and McLeod. There are some other scenarios that involve point totals, as he, Kronner and Timmy are all close in that regard. But unless Kyle pushes for 2500-3000 this week, he’s probably not gonna catch Tansuche in points.
KRONNER – Much like Kyle, a loss in W14 will require a lot of help to get the Mallrats back into the postseason. Losses by any 2 man combo of Kyle, Jones, Trigger and McLeod. This big clusterfuck of 6&7 win teams in the middle is really muddling things up. Spots 6-8 see only one team with fewer points scored than the Mallrats, so any and all help is appreciated.
TRIGGER – This one is easy. Since he has the fewest points of any teams in contention, and would therefore not win any tiebreakers, he just needs Jon and Tim to also lose if he can’t beat Josh. Should either of those guys win, paired with a loss by the Dutchmen, it’s toilet bowl time.
JONES – Because of Jon’s point total, he’s in good shape here as the fifth “win and in” team. A win by Jones, because of his opponent, won’t require any other help. Lose though, and he’s out.
MCLEOD – Timmy has the longest odds to make it here, because not only must he win, but he ALSO needs losses from at least one, but likely two of; Jones, Kronner, Kyle, Trigger. If Chris beats Jon, all Tim would need a win and a Trigger loss, but if Jones beats Tan then Tim will need more help to get in. At that point, a Trigger loss, PLUS either Kronner or Kyle losing AND Tim finishing with more points than that team.
So what is Yahoo predicting?
As of right now, based on current projections, Yahoo’s bracket looks like this;
But it’s still so early in the matchups. Right now Trigger is projected to beat Josh by less than 100 points. Should that matchup flip and everything else stays the same, we’ll see Trigs drop out and Timbo would jump into the 6 seed, while Jon and Chris slide up one slot.
Also, Kaiser is projected to beat Kyle by 83 points – if that flips and nothing else does, Kyle would be 3rd, Kronner 4th, Jones would be 5th and CTan at seed 6.
We’ll get a better sense of things after the 1pm slot of games on Sunday.
SC League Forever 